# time series

Posted on Nov 24, 2020 by
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I'm a big fan of Ernie Chan's quant trading books: Quantitative Trading, Algorithmic Trading, and Machine Trading. There are some great insights in there, but the thing I like most is the simple but thorough treatment of various edges and the quant tools you might use to research and trade them. Ernie explicitly states that the examples in the books won't be tradable, but they've certainly provided fertile ground for ideas. In Machine Trading, there is an FX strategy based on an autoregressive model of intraday price data. It has a remarkably attractive pre-cost equity curve, and since I am attracted to shiny objects, I thought I'd take a closer look. Autoregressive Models 101 An autoregressive (AR) model is a time-series multiple regression where: the predictors are past values of the time series the target is the next realisation of the time series If we used a single prior value as the only predictor, the AR model would be called an $AR(1)$ and it would look like: $y_t = \beta_0 + \beta_1 y_{t-1} + \epsilon_t$ (the $\beta$'s are...

Posted on Jan 23, 2018 by