Modelling UVXY trading strategies with Excel

UVXY is an ETF that targets 1.5x the daily returns of a 30-day constant-maturity position in VX futures – the SPVIXSTR index. Before 2018, it targeted 2x returns – but Volmageddon ruined the fun. UVXY has to trade every day: Anyone can trade UVXY in the market, and it trades close to the index because …

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Valuation Timing with Excel

Data analysis plays a central role in making sense of financial markets. But how can you verify the conclusions others draw, or better yet, uncover your own insights? Microsoft Excel remains one of the most powerful and accessible tools for financial data analysis, allowing anyone—from beginners to seasoned analysts—to explore data, test hypotheses, and make …

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Market making for beginners

I’ve noticed that beginners are often attracted to market making. To the uninitiated, it sounds like easy money and constant action. The reality, of course, is that market making isn’t the goldmine many think it is, especially not for beginners. In this article, I’ll explore why. Back in the early days of crypto, you could’ve …

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How important is keeping up with macro news?

Someone recently asked me if obsessing over FOMC announcements, Non-Farm Payrolls reports, geopolitics and other macro news is important for traders. My answer might surprise you: unless you’re actually a dedicated macro trader – which is highly unlikely if you’re reading my stuff – it almost certainly won’t help your trading. Let’s start with what …

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What can you do with a small trading account?

A lot of my advice boils down to trading is hard, so go after the easiest stuff you can find first. Some call this defeatist. I call it realistic and practical. A big part of trading is not screwing up. So, at the start, learning skills, defining processes, and building confidence are important. A question …

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Quant systematic trading vs discretionary

Someone recently asked me about the difference between our approach and discretionary order flow trading and technical analysis. Order flow trading involves sitting in front of a screen and looking at orders and trades as they come in and trying to work out if more buying or selling is happening, where those trades are occurring, …

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The Generic, No-Voodoo Trading Process

I notice that in conversations with traders, they often think about entries, exits, and discrete trades with some sort of life-cycle. But your P&L does not come from a trade. A trade doesn’t change your P&L much, except for the commission and spread costs that you incur. Your P&L comes from holding a risk position …

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Intuitive Options Pricing

In this article, we’ll use simulation and simple visualisations to build intuition around how different variables drive the price of an option. Building this intuition is important because it helps you react quickly and make decisions without relying on complex pricing models. Let’s get to it. The value of a call option at expiration A …

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