Pricing a Sports Bet like an Option

This post assumes basic knowledge of Options and Mathematical Expectation. Most of the features that you observe about options are simply due to the fact that they are expiring bets. And the features we observe in option pricing are observed in any other expiring bet. The complicated maths and terminology that surround options can make it …

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Long Options Payoff Profiles

In this article, we explore the payoff to holding long options positions. Read the previous parts of this 101 series on options: Payoff Profile of a Long Call So far, we’ve plotted the value of an option at expiration. This is useful (as we’ll see later), but it doesn’t represent our profit and loss from …

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The Value of an Option at Expiration

Read the previous parts of this 101 series on options: Options have value because the future is uncertain. One thing that is known and always unchanging, however, is the value of a given option contract at expiry. This is the most fundamental thing about an option. Value of a Call Option at Expiration A call …

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Options 101: Understanding the Basics of Financial Options

In the previous article, we discussed what makes an option valuable. At its core, an option is about choice—the choice to buy or sell an asset at a specific price within a set timeframe. In this article, we’ll explore exactly what this means. An option gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to …

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Beyond Stocks: The Surprising Volatility Returns of Oil and Gold

I’ve previously discussed the Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) and how it differs from the Equity Risk Premium (ERP). Probably the most interesting difference, from the perspective of the trader, is that the VRP may be somewhat amenable to timing – more than the ERP at any rate. In this article, I’ll use some of the …

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Diving Deep: My Personal Approach to Equity and Volatility Risk Premia

Lately, I’ve been thinking a lot about the Volatility Risk Premium (VRP). The VRP makes much more sense (to me, at least) when I have the Equity Risk Premium (ERP) for context and comparison. So, in this article, I want to discuss the ERP and the VRP, their similarities and differences, and how I seek …

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Why Aren’t Call Options More Expensive Than Put Options? (In This Toy Example)

call options

In the Robot Wealth Pro Community, we’ve started doing weekend “quant-teasers” where we discuss the solutions to quant problems. Here is a recent one… Why aren’t calls more expensive than puts for an asset which is more likely to go up than down? We have an asset trading at $100 for which the distribution of …

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