Some Things Just Go Up (If You Wait Long Enough)

  Here’s a chart of long-term asset performance…. The blue line shows returns from US stocks from 1900 to today. That’s a 48,000x increase in nominal value. The yellow line shows the returns from US bonds from 1900 to today. That’s a 300x increase in nominal value. If you look at this in isolation things …

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Trading the US Election – Profiting from “Known Unknowns”

You’ve probably noticed that there’s a US election on the horizon. This is an event of known uncertainty: a “known unknown” in the now immortal language of Donald Rumsfeld. In trading, we sometimes observe marginal pricing inefficiencies around these “known unknowns”. For example, ahead of  stock earnings announcements or significant economic or policy announcements, we tend …

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Book Review: Positional Option Trading by Euan Sinclair

This is a review of Positional Option Trading by Euan Sinclair.  Trading books set a low bar for the reviewer. 99% are full of facile feel-good advice (don’t fight the trend, always use a protective stop). The 1% that are useful tend to either be dry technical treatments (quants who don’t trade), or sporadically helpful …

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Why Aren’t Call Options More Expensive Than Put Options? (In This Toy Example)

call options

In the Robot Wealth Pro Community, we’ve started doing weekend “quant-teasers” where we discuss the solutions to quant problems. Here is a recent one… Why aren’t calls more expensive than puts for an asset which is more likely to go up than down? We have an asset trading at $100 for which the distribution of …

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Weekly Roundup 29 May – Crash Protection, Sloppy Regressions and Data Munging Skillz

Here’s a round-up of our new articles this week. They cover crash protection, sloppy, noisy regressions, and data-munging skills. Finding Options for Effective Crash Protection Large capital losses can be devastating to your trading account. A couple of weeks ago, we explained how you can use SPY put options to protect your portfolio against severe market …

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How to Fill Gaps in Large Stock Data Universes Using tidyr and dplyr

When you’re working with large universes of stock data you’ll come across a lot of challenges: Stocks pay dividends and other distributions that have to be accounted for. Stocks are subject to splits and other corporate actions which also have to be accounted for. New stocks are listed all the time – you won’t have …

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Find Cheap Options for Effective Crash Protection Using Crash Regressions

One way we can quantify a stock’s movement relative to the market index is by calculating its “beta” to the market. To calculate the beta of MSFT to SPY (for example) we: calculate daily MSFT returns and daily SPY returns align the returns with one another regress MSFT returns against SPY returns. This shows the …

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Weekly Roundup 22 May – Doubling Down in Losing Trades Like a Drunken Hedge Fund Manager

Here’s a round-up of our new articles this week. They cover options trading, digital signal processing, data munging and Kris’s luxurious moustache… Trading Insanity! Every new trader tries out a few insane trading ideas! In a new series on the blog, Kris explores three insane trading strategies that tempted him back when he didn’t know any …

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