tidyverse

Posted on Apr 30, 2020 by Robot James
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In the eye of the recent storm, with VIX up over 50, many traders were looking to "short the VIX" using products like TVIX. “Surely it's going to coming back down?” Well yeah, it will, eventually, but that doesn't mean that you can profitably short VIX products. First, some basics… What is VIX? VIX is a benchmark index for SPX volatility. It shows the SPX options market's expected value of volatility over the next 30 days. You can think of it as “What does the SPX options market think SPX volatility will be over the next 30 days?” Technically it is calculated based on the 30-day variance swap and then converted to a volatility calculation. So the VIX index is just a mathematical calculation… you can't trade it. So what can you trade? VX Futures The CBOE lists VX futures which settle to the cash value of the VIX index at their expiration date. For example, the 20 May VX contract settles to the value of the VIX index on 20 May. (Give or take… there are a few technicalities...

Posted on Mar 31, 2020 by Kris Longmore
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To say we're living through extraordinary times would be an understatement. We saw the best part of 40% wiped off stock indexes in a matter of weeks, unprecedented co-ordinated central bank intervention on a global scale, and an unfolding health crisis that for many has already turned into a tragedy. As an investor or trader, what do you do? You manage your exposures the best you can, dial everything down, and go hunting for the opportunities that inevitably present themselves in a stressed out market. We've been hunting pretty much since this thing kicked off - and we want to show you what we found. And, more importantly, the tools and approach we used to find them. To that end, we are opening the gates to our Robot Wealth Pro community, a tight-knit network of independent traders with whom we share our firm's research, data, systematic trading strategies, and real-time ideas. We normally insist that you go through an introductory Bootcamp before joining our Pro team, but these are extraordinary times and we want to get after these opportunities as...

Posted on Mar 12, 2020 by Kris Longmore
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The vector autoregression (VAR) framework is common in econometrics for modelling correlated variables with bi-directional relationships and feedback loops. If you google "vector autoregression" you'll find all sorts of academic papers related to modelling the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on various aspects of the economy. This is only of passing interest to traders. However, if we consider that the VAR framework finds application in the modelling of correlated time series, the implication being that correlation implies a level of forecasting utility, then perhaps we could model a group of related financial instruments and make predictions that we can translate into trading decisions? So we'll give that a try. But first, a brief overview of VAR models. Overview of VAR models The univariate autoregression (AR) is a model of a time series as a function of past values of itself: (Y_t = \alpha + \beta_1 Y_{t-1}+ \beta_2 Y_{t-2} ) That's an AR(2) model because it uses two previous values in the time series (Y) to estimate the next value. The name of the game is figuring out how many...