We’ve all used on/off type trading signals at some point. But you can nearly always extract more insight with a simple adjustment that focuses on using data efficiently. Let me show you how using a crypto trend example. The problem with binary signals You’ve seen them everywhere. “If price is above the 20-day moving average, …
Having the ability to call bullshit on market claims is a superpower. There’s some ancient trader lore that says it’s a bad idea to hold SPY when it’s under the 12-month moving average of its price. Is there anything to this idea? Check out the webinar below to see how we put this idea to …
Let’s say you observe some effect in the market and quantify it with simple data analysis. A good question is, “What are the chances I’d see this effect solely due to chance?” And using simple Excel tools, we can answer this question without doing any formal statistics. Before we get into it, it’s worth noting …
Ever met a quant who was slightly religious about their tools? I’ve had Python zealots, R devotees, and MATLAB missionaries (well, back in the day, at least) all claiming their way is the best way. I use R for most of my analysis. The tidyverse libraries make sense to my brain, and I can move …
Data analysis plays a central role in making sense of financial markets. But how can you verify the conclusions others draw, or better yet, uncover your own insights? Microsoft Excel remains one of the most powerful and accessible tools for financial data analysis, allowing anyone—from beginners to seasoned analysts—to explore data, test hypotheses, and make …
Back in May 2020, in the eye of the Covid storm, we looked at overnight vs intraday returns in US equities. Intuitively, we’d probably expect to see higher average returns overnight when the market is closed – because it’s much more difficult to hedge and manage our exposures when the cash market is closed, so …
An assumption we often make in trading research is that the future will be at least a little like the past. I see a lot of beginners making this assumption implicitly without recognising that they’re making it or thinking about whether it’s reasonable to do so. That’s a mistake. If you are making this assumption, …
